FC 25 PACK ODDS
If there’s one aspect of the game that players know the least about, it’s how packs work.
FC 25 Pack Odds
In FIFA 19, EA introduced a groundbreaking move by revealing the odds of acquiring highly-rated players in every pack available on the Ultimate Team store. This transparency aimed to provide players with insights into the probabilities associated with their pack purchases, shedding light on the rarity of certain players. By disclosing these pack probabilities, EA aimed to empower players to make informed decisions about how they invest their FC Points, UT Coins, and time in assembling their ultimate squad.
To access these pack odds, players can navigate to the store screen, select the desired pack, and opt to view ‘Show Pack Probabilities’ (space on PC; options on consoles). The displayed percentages represent the minimum probability of obtaining one or more players within the specified rating range and category. For instance, a category and rating with a 100% probability ensure the receipt of at least one item within that category.
It’s essential to note that these probability percentages are specific to each pack and are not cumulative . Each pack opening constitutes an independent event, meaning that the likelihood of receiving an item from a specific category remains constant regardless of the number of packs opened. To determine FC 25 Pack Odds, EA conducts simulations involving a substantial number of pack openings for each pack in the Store, ensuring statistical validity. These simulations are regularly updated, especially during promotions, to reflect changes in the chances of obtaining higher-rated players.
Despite the disclosure of FC 25 pack odds, EA faced regulatory challenges, leading to the prohibition of FC Points sales in Belgium, with other countries like the Netherlands and Germany poised to follow suit. Critics argue that the revealed pack probabilities lack transparency and may necessitate revisions or alternative strategies to address concerns raised by gambling regulators.
Probability
The introduction of Pack Odds marked a significant stride towards transparency in FIFA/FC, yet there remains an appetite for deeper insights into pack probabilities. Imagine having access to the chances of packing an Icon or any specific player, or being able to calculate the average expenditure required to pull a particular card. It’s a tantalizing prospect, but one that remains out of reach due to the limitations of the data provided by Electronic Arts.
Consider an example to grasp why our understanding is limited. During a specific event, Prime Gold Players Packs became available in the store, boasting a 1.1% chance of containing at least one special player. At first glance, one might assume that acquiring such a card would necessitate purchasing around 91 packs. However, this average event probability remains relatively low.
To gain perspective, let’s consider the probability of not receiving the card, which stands at 98.9%. Assuming we continue until obtaining at least one card, the probability of not doing so with 91 packs is calculated as 98.9%^91, resulting in a 36.5% chance of success, leaving a 63.5% chance of obtaining at least one card after 91 packs. Similarly, there’s a 90% chance of obtaining at least one card with 208 packs.
While these probabilities offer insight into potential outcomes, they don’t guarantee success, just as one may have packed the card before. This approach is feasible for special cards where EA provides exact odds. However, for other items, such as players below 82+ and 87+ ratings, the probabilities remain undisclosed, leaving us in the dark about the contents of each pack.
Let’s think about another scenario. Suppose we aim to calculate the likelihood of packing Mbappe’s NIF item from a Rare Players Pack. With around 900 rare gold items in the game and a 50k pack containing 12 rare gold players, the odds seem slim at 1.3%. However, this calculation relies on several assumptions, including uniform card weights across players. In reality, Mbappe’s rarity surpasses that of other gold players, making the probability of packing him much lower than 1.3%. Unfortunately, without insight into individual card weights, determining the odds of acquiring a specific player remains an insurmountable challenge, not just for Mbappé but for all players. This lack of transparency renders it impossible to accurately calculate the odds of packing a specific player.
Transparency
EA really needs to enhance its transparency regarding FC 25 pack odds. Currently, they only reveal a fraction of the odds, leaving much to speculation. Here’s what we believe EA should implement in future editions:
- Include Pack Odds for All Packs
Pack odds should be disclosed for all packs available in ‘My Packs’, not just promotional packs. If EA voluntarily discloses pack odds, it should do so across the board to eliminate accusations of gambling. - Provide Pack Odds for All Ratings
It’s crucial to know precisely what each pack contains. For instance, instead of showing odds for 75+, 82+, and 88+ rated players in Rare Player Packs, it should detail odds for each individual rating from 75 to 88. - Specify Exact Pack Odds
Pack odds lower than 1% should be displayed with precision, including at least two decimal places. Rather than stating that odds are lower than 1%, it should specify, for example, 0.25%. - Reveal Each Card Weight
While it may be the epitome of transparency, it’s highly improbable that EA will disclose individual card weights. This information would reveal the scarcity of popular players and the potential manipulation of card weights over time and based on user profiles.
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