FC 26 PACK CHANCES
Pack weight and pack chances refer to the hidden probabilities that determine how likely you are to pull high-rated players or rare items from FUT packs.
FC 26 Pack Odds
In FIFA 19, EA introduced a groundbreaking move by revealing the odds of acquiring highly-rated players in every pack available on the Ultimate Team store. This transparency aimed to provide players with insights into the probabilities, commonly referred to as pack weight, associated with their pack purchases, shedding light on the rarity of certain players. By disclosing these pack probabilities, EA aimed to empower players to make informed decisions about how they invest their FC Points, UT Coins, and time in assembling their ultimate squad.
To access these pack odds, players can navigate to the store screen, select the desired pack, and opt to view ‘Show Pack Probabilities’ (space on PC; options on consoles). The displayed percentages represent the minimum probability of obtaining one or more players within the specified rating range and category. For instance, a category and rating with a 100% probability ensure the receipt of at least one item within that category.
It’s essential to note that these probability percentages are specific to each pack and are not cumulative. Each pack opening constitutes an independent event, meaning that the likelihood of receiving an item from a specific category remains constant regardless of the number of packs opened. To determine FC 26 Pack Odds and overall pack weight, EA conducts simulations involving a substantial number of pack openings for each pack in the Store, ensuring statistical validity. These simulations are regularly updated, especially during promotions, to reflect changes in the chances of obtaining higher-rated players.
Despite the disclosure of FC 26 pack odds, EA faced regulatory challenges, leading to the prohibition of FC Points sales in Belgium, with other countries like the Netherlands and Germany poised to follow suit. Critics argue that the revealed pack probabilities still lack full transparency and may necessitate revisions or alternative strategies to address concerns raised by gambling regulators.
Probability
The introduction of Pack Odds marked a significant stride toward transparency in FIFA/FC, yet there remains a strong demand for deeper insights into Pack Chances. Imagine knowing the likelihood of packing an Icon or any specific player or even calculating the average spend needed to pull a particular card. It’s an enticing idea, but one that remains out of reach due to the limitations of the data provided by Electronic Arts.
Consider this example to understand the gap in information. During a special event, Prime Gold Players Packs were available in the store, each with a 1.1% chance of containing at least one special player. At first glance, you might assume it would take about 91 packs to get such a card, since 1/0.011≈911/0.011≈91. However, this only represents the average Pack Chance.
To put this into perspective, think about the inverse probability — not getting the card — which is 98.9%. Opening 91 packs, the chance of never pulling the card is 0.989910.98991, roughly 36.5%. That means there’s actually a 63.5% chance of getting at least one special player after 91 packs. Similarly, to reach a 90% chance of success, you’d need to open about 208 packs.
These probabilities provide helpful benchmarks, but they don’t guarantee results. Someone may hit the jackpot in fewer packs, while others might not. This kind of analysis is only possible for special cards where EA discloses exact Pack Odds. For other items, such as those below 82+ or 87+ ratings, the specific Pack Chances are withheld, keeping us in the dark about what’s really inside each pack.
Now consider another scenario. Suppose we want to calculate the odds of packing a highly sought-after player from a Rare Players Pack. With around 1000 rare gold players in the game and each 50k pack containing 12 rare gold items, the naive estimate would be 12 out of 1000, or 1.2%. However, this assumes all players have equal pack weight. In reality, top-tier players are significantly rarer than others, meaning their true Pack Chance is much lower. Without access to individual card weights, it’s impossible to accurately estimate the odds of packing a specific player. This lack of transparency remains a major barrier to fully understanding how Ultimate Team packs really work.
Transparency
EA really needs to enhance its transparency regarding FC 25 pack odds. Currently, they only reveal a fraction of the odds, leaving much to speculation. Here’s what we believe EA should implement in future editions:
- Include Pack Odds for All Packs
Odds should be disclosed for every pack, including those found in ‘My Packs’, not just promotional ones. If EA is committed to voluntary disclosure, it should apply universally to avoid further accusations of encouraging gambling. - Provide Pack Odds for All Ratings
Transparency demands greater detail. Instead of only showing odds for 75+, 82+, and 88+ rated players, packs should reveal the probability for each individual rating tier between 75 and 88. - Specify Exact Pack Odds
Any pack odds below 1% should be displayed with precision, ideally with two decimal places. Rather than vaguely stating “less than 1%”, EA should, for example, specify 0.25%. - Reveal Each Card’s Weight
Although this would represent the highest level of transparency, it’s unlikely EA will disclose individual card weights. Still, doing so would shed light on the rarity of top players and whether drop rates vary over time or between user accounts.
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