What’s the best moment to buy cheap players? When will be the next FIFA 17 market crash? Should I buy the cards I want at Black Friday or at FUT United? Should I sell all my players already so I can buy them cheaper later in FUTmas? What’s the best day of FUT Birthday to go buying? It would be great to know the answers to all of these and other questions, wouldn’t it? That’s why we’re publishing this guide which analyses the variations on the players’ prices along the FIFA 17 events that are yet to come. Knowledge is power!
Quick Access
Introduction
Basic Principles
Halloween
FUT United – First Edition
Black Friday
FUTmas
FUT United – Second Edition
Community Week
Comprehending the Players Prices and FIFA 17 Market Crash
Guide’s introductory note
In the past three years we have been collecting information on the prices of hundreds of players’ cards, in different stages of the season. We’ll use them not only in order to predict what is going to happen in FIFA 17, but also to publish other more specific and detailed trading guides.
This series of trading guides we’ve been publishing obeys to a logical sequence. If you haven’t read one of the previous articles, we recommend you do it now. As we have said here before, prices on the FUT market vary according to several factors, like for example the type of card, the player, his real life performance or the release of promotional packs. That’s why it’s impossible to describe with 100% accuracy what is going to happen with the price of a determined card because every case is a different case. What we’re doing here is give you a general idea of the evolution in the average card’s price. It doesn’t mean all cards will behave the same way at some point. We’re talking tendencies only. So now that’s been warned…
Basic Principles
General notions on the way FIFA 17 events affect the players’ prices
Predicting the price of a card isn’t an easy task. This year it’s even harder. The FUT market has never been so unpredictable as it is now. What contributes to that are the Happy Hours that are being released 5 to 6 times a week, the countless new cards more colourful than the rainbow itself, the squad building challenges which affect the prices of whole leagues and, as if all that wasn’t enough, we have the super-popular FUT Champions rewarding thousands of players weekly, causing the biggest coin and card injections in the history of Ultimate Team.
Many are the factors that affect the prices of players, but none has as much influence along the year as the events. The commemorative promotions Electronic Arts release have the capacity to make even the most price-resistant cards gain or lose value, such as the most popular IF or Ones to Watch players. Knowing the way these events make prices vary is extremely important for you to become a (very) successful trader.
According to the events, cards’ prices behave in a different way. However, we analysed these variations very carefully throughout the year and were able to come up with some important conclusions.
Offers Included
The prices vary mainly according to the type of offers associated to an event. The more popular it is, more the prices will drop, since the most appellative offers go with it. Ultimate Team players are always after free packs and Jumbo Rare Player packs.
Knowledge of when the event is going to happen
When the community knows what day a determined event will occur, the cards’ prices drop progressively over the days and weeks previous to it, normally reaching a minimum right before it starts. However, when an event is announced the same day it starts, catching everyone by surprise, the price drops happen practically all on the same day and more suddenly (market cash).
Post-event
After the end of any event, the prices tend to increase for a few days, as a reflex of all the speculation made during its occurrence. However, when two events are separated only by a few days, they behave as if the second one was the continuation of the first one, normally the prices stop decreasing. It’s what happens, for example, with the Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Duration of an event
When an event is too long, with more than a week of duration, its effect over the prices is less significant.
How much further from the start of the season the event happens
The further the event starts, less it will affect the players’ prices. The first couple of events are normally those with the biggest capacity of making prices drop, because the first promotional packs are being released and that’s what people are most interested in.
Now that you have an idea of how the players’ prices vary through FIFA 17 events, it’s time to individually analyse each one of the most popular events in the game.
Halloween
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during Halloween
When the season begins, thousands of players start waiting for EA to release the best packs on the store in order to build their squads. Because of that, the first event of the year is extremely anticipated and is associated with the first big price drop in the game. Normally this happens at FUT United but this year Ultimate Scream took place. Halloween, which on FIFA 16 went pretty much unnoticed, was elevated to the event category this year and EA even innovated with some big offers, catching players by surprise. Besides the first 50k packs, Halloween on FIFA 17 featured with some theme cards, special squad building challenges and other offers.
| FIFA 17 PLAYERS PRICES CARDS DURING HALLOWEEN | |||||||||||||||||
| DAY | -2 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | +1 | +2 | +3 |
| % | ↑ 4% | ↑ 6% | ↓ 7% | ↓ 4% | ↓ 4% | ↑ 3% | ↑ 2% | ↓ 4% | ↓ 4% | ↓ 5% | ↑ 0% | ↓ 5% | ↓ 3% | ↑ 5% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 4% | ↑ 0% |
This event was announced on the same day it started, that explains why the market was pretty much intact before this date. The price drops occurred all on the first day and no significant increases happened during the remaining days of the promotion. Between the first and the last day of the Halloween event, prices dropped from 20 to 25%, and recovered something around 5% after the end.
Click in the image to maximize itFUT United – First Edition
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during the first edition of FUT United
Part of the community knows that FUT United happens some time around the month of november, but doesn’t know when exactly. Plus, until EA announces it, which is on the same day it begins, there’s always some level of uncertainty on whether it will actually happen or not. Naturally that’s why it is found that the market only reacts to this event after it starts.
In previous years, FUT United hosted the first market crash. On FIFA 16, for example, between the first and the last day of the event, the market’s prices decreased around 20%, a very considerable percentage taking into consideration the fact that it only lasted four days. This year, due to the greater importance of Halloween, it’s likely that this devaluation won’t be too big, although the potential 100k packs release during the event might work as its differential.
| PLAYERS PRICES DURING THE FIRST EDITION OF FUT UNITED ON FIFA 16 | |||||||||
| DAY | -2 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +1 | +2 | +3 |
| % | ↑ 0% | ↑ 0% | ↓ 9% | ↓ 12% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 1% | ↓ 4% | ↓ 4% |
Normally the market devaluation occurs mainly on the first days of the event. Then, in case no other demanded FUT packs are released on the store, it’s most certain that the prices maintain themselves. Since the Black Friday comes just a few days after the end of FUT United, the market doesn’t recover at all.
IF cards aren’t immune to FUT United. However, this IF card price decrease isn’t half as strong as the price decrease of NIF cards.
Click in the image to maximize itBlack Friday
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday
Contrary to what happens at FUT United, the community knows well when the Black Friday will occur and anticipates the cards’ price drops. The recognition that this event has in previous years of being one of those that make prices drop the most makes it inevitable that the same happens year after year. Even when offers aren’t even that much appellative, the market drops in such a vertiginous way because no one wants to take the risk of losing their purchase power.
Once there is less than two weeks between one event and the other, the devaluation begins in the continuity of FUT United. The difference is that before this event the market was dropping 1% a day, and after there was an average devaluation of 2,5% a day.
| PLAYERS PRICES DURING BLACK FRIDAY ON FIFA 16 | |||||||||
| DAY | -10 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +1 | +2 | +15 |
| % | ↑ 0% | ↓ 25% | ↑ 5% | ↑ 2% | ↑ 0% | ↑ 0% | ↑ 0% | ↑ 0% | ↑ 3% |
Different to what many people think, the Black Friday isn’t known by having a huge Market Crash. The biggest devaluation occurs before it even starts. Between the last day of FUT United and the day before the Black Friday, the market drops around 25%. It reaches the critical minimum on this day. From there, prices start rising again. It’s a slow and slight recovery but the truth is that only two weeks later this tendency inverts itself and it’s due to FUTmas and TOTY getting close.
This behaviour we’ve described is also followed by the IF cards, in a weaker rhythm of course. The best day to buy them is also the Thursday before Black Friday, when they’ve accumulated a devaluation of almost 20%, so that then they can slightly recover on the next days.
Click in the image to maximize itFUTmas
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during FUTmas
FUTmas is one of the most anticipated events of the year. Among its several offers, there are free packs and the Jumbo Rare Players packs. Every year the event features these offers and, as such, the community anticipates itself to the most predictable price drops ever.
The market devaluation begins on the first weekend of December, reaching its minimum on the first day of the event. Although it’s known that FUTmas will occur, few people can predict exactly what day it will begin. That’s why, although the devaluation happens mainly two weeks before, when decreases of almost 20% are accumulated, the day when prices drop the most is the day the event starts.
| PLAYERS PRICES DURING FUTMAS ON FIFA 16 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| DAY | -2 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| % | ↑ 0% | ↑ 0% | ↓ 9% | ↑ 4% | ↑ 2% | ↑ 2% | ↓ 1% | ↓ 1% | ↓ 3% | ↑ 5% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 3% | ↑ 3% | ↑ 0% | ↓ 6% | ↑ 0% | ↓ 4% | ↑ 3% | ↓ 2% | ↓ 2% |
After the start of FUTmas, prices tend to generally rise. Between the 24th and 29th of december, the market rises considerably, so you should avoid buying cards in this period as much as you can. You’ll only need to wait a few more days, after the event, prices go back to decreasing to historical minimums, as a result of the Team of the Year arrival.
During FUTmas there’s no big difference between the behaviour of the prices of NIF and IF cards.
Click in the image to maximize itFUT United – Second Edition
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during the second edition of FUT United
As the season advances, less interesting are the new events for the players. A good example of this is the second edition of FUT United. The impact this promotion has on the FIFA 17 Ultimate Team transfer market is almost despicable.
| PLAYERS PRICES DURING THE SECOND EDITION OF FUT UNITED ON FIFA 16 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| DAY | -2 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | +1 | +2 | +3 | ||||||||
| % | ↑ 0% | ↑ 0% | ↑ 0% | ↓ 2% | ↑ 0% | ↓ 1% | ↓ 1% | ↓ 1% | ↓ 1% | ↑ 0% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 1% | ||||||||
This event starts with no previous announcement, which means only after this moment prices start to gradually drop. This price decrease is felt during all of the days of the event, therefore the minimum is reached on the last day.
After FUT United, normally a slight market recovery is registered.
Community Week
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during the Community Week
The Community Week is one of the last events of the season and that is why it influences cards’ prices much less than the first events of the game.
The market devaluation begins just on the first day of the promotion, since the big majority of the community isn’t aware that it will be released. During the week, prices are constantly falling, reaching a minimum on the last day. After the event, prices recover more than half of the loss.
| PLAYERS PRICES DURING COMMUNITY WEEK ON FIFA 16 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| DAY | -2 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 | ||||||
| % | ↑ 0% | ↑ 0% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 0% | ↓ 1% | ↓ 1% | ↓ 1% | ↓ 1% | ↓ 2% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 2% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 0% | ↑ 0% | ||||||
The IF cards also lose value through the Community Week. However, the price recovery that follows happens in much less time.
Most of the other FIFA 17 events don’t have an influence over the cards’ prices.
During Thanksgiving there is a market devaluation but probably it’s just because of the anticipation of the Black Friday.
Now, during the Lunar New Year and FUT Birthday, prices drop around 2% on the first day, reaching 3% in the middle of the week. The recovery that follows practically annuls this devaluation.
It’s important to mention that price behaviours might be different to what we exposed here according to the offers and dates associated with each event.
Now that you have all the tools, it’s time to become a millionaire.
Disclaimer: FIFA U Team is not responsible for an eventually different behaviour of the transfer market on FIFA 17