What’s the best moment to buy cheap players? When will be the next FIFA 17 market crash? Should I buy the cards I want at Black Friday or at FUT United? Should I sell all my players already so I can buy them cheaper later in FUTmas? What’s the best day of FUT Birthday to go buying? It would be great to know the answers to all of these and other questions, wouldn’t it? That’s why we’re publishing this guide which analyses the variations on the players’ prices along the FIFA 17 events that are yet to come. Knowledge is power!
FUT United – First Edition
FUT United – Second Edition
Comprehending the Players Prices and FIFA 17 Market Crash
Guide’s introductory note
In the past three years we have been collecting information on the prices of hundreds of players’ cards, in different stages of the season. We’ll use them not only in order to predict what is going to happen in FIFA 17, but also to publish other more specific and detailed trading guides.
This series of trading guides we’ve been publishing obeys to a logical sequence. If you haven’t read one of the previous articles, we recommend you do it now. As we have said here before, prices on the FUT market vary according to several factors, like for example the type of card, the player, his real life performance or the release of promotional packs. That’s why it’s impossible to describe with 100% accuracy what is going to happen with the price of a determined card because every case is a different case. What we’re doing here is give you a general idea of the evolution in the average card’s price. It doesn’t mean all cards will behave the same way at some point. We’re talking tendencies only. So now that’s been warned…
General notions on the way FIFA 17 events affect the players’ prices
Predicting the price of a card isn’t an easy task. This year it’s even harder. The FUT market has never been so unpredictable as it is now. What contributes to that are the Happy Hours that are being released 5 to 6 times a week, the countless new cards more colourful than the rainbow itself, the squad building challenges which affect the prices of whole leagues and, as if all that wasn’t enough, we have the super-popular FUT Champions rewarding thousands of players weekly, causing the biggest coin and card injections in the history of Ultimate Team.
Many are the factors that affect the prices of players, but none has as much influence along the year as the events. The commemorative promotions Electronic Arts release have the capacity to make even the most price-resistant cards gain or lose value, such as the most popular IF or Ones to Watch players. Knowing the way these events make prices vary is extremely important for you to become a (very) successful trader.
According to the events, cards’ prices behave in a different way. However, we analysed these variations very carefully throughout the year and were able to come up with some important conclusions.
The prices vary mainly according to the type of offers associated to an event. The more popular it is, more the prices will drop, since the most appellative offers go with it. Ultimate Team players are always after free packs and Jumbo Rare Player packs.
Knowledge of when the event is going to happen
When the community knows what day a determined event will occur, the cards’ prices drop progressively over the days and weeks previous to it, normally reaching a minimum right before it starts. However, when an event is announced the same day it starts, catching everyone by surprise, the price drops happen practically all on the same day and more suddenly (market cash).
After the end of any event, the prices tend to increase for a few days, as a reflex of all the speculation made during its occurrence. However, when two events are separated only by a few days, they behave as if the second one was the continuation of the first one, normally the prices stop decreasing. It’s what happens, for example, with the Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Duration of an event
When an event is too long, with more than a week of duration, its effect over the prices is less significant.
How much further from the start of the season the event happens
The further the event starts, less it will affect the players’ prices. The first couple of events are normally those with the biggest capacity of making prices drop, because the first promotional packs are being released and that’s what people are most interested in.
Now that you have an idea of how the players’ prices vary through FIFA 17 events, it’s time to individually analyse each one of the most popular events in the game.
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during Halloween
When the season begins, thousands of players start waiting for EA to release the best packs on the store in order to build their squads. Because of that, the first event of the year is extremely anticipated and is associated with the first big price drop in the game. Normally this happens at FUT United but this year Ultimate Scream took place. Halloween, which on FIFA 16 went pretty much unnoticed, was elevated to the event category this year and EA even innovated with some big offers, catching players by surprise. Besides the first 50k packs, Halloween on FIFA 17 featured with some theme cards, special squad building challenges and other offers.
|FIFA 17 PLAYERS PRICES CARDS DURING HALLOWEEN|
|%||↑ 4%||↑ 6%||↓ 7%||↓ 4%||↓ 4%||↑ 3%||↑ 2%||↓ 4%||↓ 4%||↓ 5%||↑ 0%||↓ 5%||↓ 3%||↑ 5%||↑ 1%||↑ 4%||↑ 0%|
This event was announced on the same day it started, that explains why the market was pretty much intact before this date. The price drops occurred all on the first day and no significant increases happened during the remaining days of the promotion. Between the first and the last day of the Halloween event, prices dropped from 20 to 25%, and recovered something around 5% after the end.
FUT United – First Edition
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during the first edition of FUT United
Part of the community knows that FUT United happens some time around the month of november, but doesn’t know when exactly. Plus, until EA announces it, which is on the same day it begins, there’s always some level of uncertainty on whether it will actually happen or not. Naturally that’s why it is found that the market only reacts to this event after it starts.
In previous years, FUT United hosted the first market crash. On FIFA 16, for example, between the first and the last day of the event, the market’s prices decreased around 20%, a very considerable percentage taking into consideration the fact that it only lasted four days. This year, due to the greater importance of Halloween, it’s likely that this devaluation won’t be too big, although the potential 100k packs release during the event might work as its differential.
|PLAYERS PRICES DURING THE FIRST EDITION OF FUT UNITED ON FIFA 16|
|%||↑ 0%||↑ 0%||↓ 9%||↓ 12%||↑ 1%||↑ 1%||↑ 1%||↓ 4%||↓ 4%|
Normally the market devaluation occurs mainly on the first days of the event. Then, in case no other demanded FUT packs are released on the store, it’s most certain that the prices maintain themselves. Since the Black Friday comes just a few days after the end of FUT United, the market doesn’t recover at all.
IF cards aren’t immune to FUT United. However, this IF card price decrease isn’t half as strong as the price decrease of NIF cards.
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday
Contrary to what happens at FUT United, the community knows well when the Black Friday will occur and anticipates the cards’ price drops. The recognition that this event has in previous years of being one of those that make prices drop the most makes it inevitable that the same happens year after year. Even when offers aren’t even that much appellative, the market drops in such a vertiginous way because no one wants to take the risk of losing their purchase power.
Once there is less than two weeks between one event and the other, the devaluation begins in the continuity of FUT United. The difference is that before this event the market was dropping 1% a day, and after there was an average devaluation of 2,5% a day.
|PLAYERS PRICES DURING BLACK FRIDAY ON FIFA 16|
|%||↑ 0%||↓ 25%||↑ 5%||↑ 2%||↑ 0%||↑ 0%||↑ 0%||↑ 0%||↑ 3%|
Different to what many people think, the Black Friday isn’t known by having a huge Market Crash. The biggest devaluation occurs before it even starts. Between the last day of FUT United and the day before the Black Friday, the market drops around 25%. It reaches the critical minimum on this day. From there, prices start rising again. It’s a slow and slight recovery but the truth is that only two weeks later this tendency inverts itself and it’s due to FUTmas and TOTY getting close.
This behaviour we’ve described is also followed by the IF cards, in a weaker rhythm of course. The best day to buy them is also the Thursday before Black Friday, when they’ve accumulated a devaluation of almost 20%, so that then they can slightly recover on the next days.
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during FUTmas
FUTmas is one of the most anticipated events of the year. Among its several offers, there are free packs and the Jumbo Rare Players packs. Every year the event features these offers and, as such, the community anticipates itself to the most predictable price drops ever.
The market devaluation begins on the first weekend of December, reaching its minimum on the first day of the event. Although it’s known that FUTmas will occur, few people can predict exactly what day it will begin. That’s why, although the devaluation happens mainly two weeks before, when decreases of almost 20% are accumulated, the day when prices drop the most is the day the event starts.
|PLAYERS PRICES DURING FUTMAS ON FIFA 16|
|%||↑ 0%||↑ 0%||↓ 9%||↑ 4%||↑ 2%||↑ 2%||↓ 1%||↓ 1%||↓ 3%||↑ 5%||↑ 1%||↑ 3%||↑ 3%||↑ 0%||↓ 6%||↑ 0%||↓ 4%||↑ 3%||↓ 2%||↓ 2%|
After the start of FUTmas, prices tend to generally rise. Between the 24th and 29th of december, the market rises considerably, so you should avoid buying cards in this period as much as you can. You’ll only need to wait a few more days, after the event, prices go back to decreasing to historical minimums, as a result of the Team of the Year arrival.
During FUTmas there’s no big difference between the behaviour of the prices of NIF and IF cards.
FUT United – Second Edition
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during the second edition of FUT United
As the season advances, less interesting are the new events for the players. A good example of this is the second edition of FUT United. The impact this promotion has on the FIFA 17 Ultimate Team transfer market is almost despicable.
|PLAYERS PRICES DURING THE SECOND EDITION OF FUT UNITED ON FIFA 16|
|%||↑ 0%||↑ 0%||↑ 0%||↓ 2%||↑ 0%||↓ 1%||↓ 1%||↓ 1%||↓ 1%||↑ 0%||↑ 1%||↑ 1%|
This event starts with no previous announcement, which means only after this moment prices start to gradually drop. This price decrease is felt during all of the days of the event, therefore the minimum is reached on the last day.
After FUT United, normally a slight market recovery is registered.
The variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices during the Community Week
The Community Week is one of the last events of the season and that is why it influences cards’ prices much less than the first events of the game.
The market devaluation begins just on the first day of the promotion, since the big majority of the community isn’t aware that it will be released. During the week, prices are constantly falling, reaching a minimum on the last day. After the event, prices recover more than half of the loss.
|PLAYERS PRICES DURING COMMUNITY WEEK ON FIFA 16|
|%||↑ 0%||↑ 0%||↑ 1%||↑ 0%||↓ 1%||↓ 1%||↓ 1%||↓ 1%||↓ 2%||↑ 1%||↑ 2%||↑ 1%||↑ 0%||↑ 0%|
The IF cards also lose value through the Community Week. However, the price recovery that follows happens in much less time.
Most of the other FIFA 17 events don’t have an influence over the cards’ prices.
During Thanksgiving there is a market devaluation but probably it’s just because of the anticipation of the Black Friday.
Now, during the Lunar New Year and FUT Birthday, prices drop around 2% on the first day, reaching 3% in the middle of the week. The recovery that follows practically annuls this devaluation.
It’s important to mention that price behaviours might be different to what we exposed here according to the offers and dates associated with each event.
Now that you have all the tools, it’s time to become a millionaire.
Disclaimer: FIFA U Team is not responsible for an eventually different behaviour of the transfer market on FIFA 17
93 thoughts on “FIFA 17 Players Prices Behaviour and Market Crash Guide”
will the prices go down after the pink futtie cards come out and should i sell my team before futties come out
With or without FUTTIES (they will not affect the prices like they did in previous years), cards will become cheaper as we get closer from FIFA 18.
i am about to purchase alexis sanchez when is the best time to buy him
Usually Sunday night.
How does tots affect it.
See i have bought a team from the bpl whilst tots is out however im wondering when it would be a good time to sell the team. I want to sell it to make further improvments on my team.
Say when bpl tots comes out. Would that be a good time to sell the players?
See if this helps.
I just picked up one to watch higuain for 470k would his price go up and is that a good investment.
It is a good investment only if he gets an upgrade or receives more TOTW cards.
I just packed the orange Walcott. Do I sell him now as his price is dropping or wait??
Sorry, we are late. We hope you have sold him.
Hello. I bought bale for around 630k a few days ago. I was thinking of selling and make a profit the same night but his price dropped to around 600k. When should i sell to make a profit?
Maybe in one week.
Hello from Greece,
I want to ask if there will be any discounts during February, when the winter upgrades come out and if there will be any discounts on players who won’t get any upgrades.
Hi! Nice country.
I think you are asking if players prices will drop, right? Yes, they are dropping now because of discounted coin packs. They will go up again after Lunar New Year event and for upgraded players the prices may drop again during the Winter Upgrades release.
Thanks a lot, that’s exactly what I asked
I have messi benzema modric when do u think i should sell them and buy them when they are cheap again
You are late… Don’t sell them now.
when does the prices go up for oblak
Probably next month.
When’s the best time to buy players during TOTY?
See it here.
Thank you. The team that I want to buy has Griezmann and Sergio Ramos, they are in the team of the year, so when should I buy those two players? Before or after TOTY? During midfielders?
Hi. Griezmann may not be in the TOTY. We will have to wait to Monday to know. Without knowing if he will feature in the TOTY or not it’s difficult to decide when we should buy him.
About Sergio Ramos, my suggestion is to buy him on Jan 8 (night) or Jan 9.
Why are the prices still a lot higher then in Black Friday.It’s almost toty
Be calm. They will drop soon.
When should I buy normal players on toty
You can find your answer here.
When do you think that I need to sell my players and when do I buy them again?
Sell them in the coming days and buy them back on january 9.
Hi all.. this is the 1st year I’ve actually properly paid attention to the transfer market and still so still a bit confused by it, when to buy and sell.. I’ve been doing the safest way of making profit so far (buy 650, sell 950) but now I have 450k I want to make some serious money, and I understand, it’s almost time to do so.. any help with dates etc and maybe which sort of players to buy would be helpful, thanks 🙂
This is a good time to sell.
Jan 9 night should be a good day to buy. We recommend to buy players from Premier League from 2k to 5k coins, especially forwards or pacey players.
Why the premier league ones? (just to know your estimates about it) thanks
Because usually they have a higher cardweight and are more popular, which means that there are more people buying them.
I have about 727k do you think messi and ronaldo will drop to around that price.
Last year their price dropped a few days before TOTY and then they went up again.
You said before that today willbe the best day to invest during the futmass. So what time should I buy players today?
Regarding FUTmas, is it a good idea to invest in players before the futmas starts, as the prices are lower and tend to increase during the futmas.
Yes, it is.
Hi Rodrigo, just to confirm what you think this strategy:
– Buy players on December 18th
– Sell them on Christmas 25th
– Buy them again January 9th (before TOYT)
Yes, that looks a good strategy (except maybe for the best players in the game like Ronaldo and Messi).
Why except Ronaldo & Messi?
Because their prices are more unpredictable.
I wish I had saw this before Black Friday. I would have made a killing. But I’m prepared now for FutMas and TOTY. Thanks
Add us to your favourites and you have your problem solved. 🙂
hi Rodrigo. I sold my team a Spanish and English squad on December 2 for about 202k. I felt the prices were height by the time. and I was wondering when should I buy the players again. at the moment I have no players I was regularly checking the market but the prices are still high. I don’t mind waiting as long as I can buy them for cheap. and if I bought them for cheap do u recommend me to sell them again when the prices go up again. if yes when. thanks in advance
Hi. It depends if you want to have fun or profit.
We expect to see prices low on December 18. However, is you want to wait until they go even lower, buy them on January 9.
Just in this moment it seems the market is going very down, just checked several players like Robben or Neuer and are almost like before thanksgiving is this a crash and you think December 18 in a week could be better than tomorrrow?
Yes, I still believe that in Dec 18 prices will be even lower.
So you believe that the prices will be the cheapest at first day of futmass(16th?).Should I buy at 16th and sell at 24th or 25th And then buy again at 8th of january. I would have thought that best way is to buy at christmas eve and then sell just before new year when the futmass is over.
Yes, that what I think. Based on previous years, you should not buy them on Xmas eve and sell them before the new year.
Hi Rodrigo, I sold all my players I made 1.6M but my current team is crappy, when could I invest in a good team (Messi, Neyma, Griezman, etc) and sell them again, you said before December 11th then December 18th, right now they seems high price
The behaviour of the prices for top players is more irregular. I still believe December 18 will be a good time to buy. If you want to wait a bit more, you can also buy them in the day before TOTY comes out (Jan 8).
I have 210k and plan to buy a team with 5 ifs, when would be the best time to buy the team as right now prices have increased
Hi. I don’t recommend to waste your money on IF cards but the decision is yours.
You can buy them on the first day of FUTMas or in the day before the TOTY release to get a even lower price.
Hi! I would like to know few things about how to make the most of futmass period. I have now something like 130-150k bundesliga team(bought it at cyber monday). When should I sell my team and when should I buy a new one? Will the prices rise again in the next days or should I sell my team right now? Also I would like to know what team(which league) you would recommend to me if i have about 170k budget when the prices are the cheapest
You have here all you need to know about the best times to sell and buy during FUTMas. Basically, we believe you should buy on the first FUTMas day, sell on Xmas and buy again on first day of TOTY.
With that budget, I recommend to build a Serie A squad.
Hey: I bought my team during Black Friday and now sold it for around 40k-50k profit. When do you think I can buy the players cheap again? Thanks for your amazing site and guides.
If you want to take the risk here is my suggestion:
buy them December 18 at night and sell them on Xmas; then buy them again January 8.
This is the most helpful guide on the topic I’ve seen. Thanks!
Should i buy players in the black friday so i can sell right after is finish for profit?
they should be expensive players?
I don’t think it is the best thing to do…
So has the major crash happened yet? I want to get Gareth Bale but I dont know when to get him exactly and for how much… would appreciate a reply
The better is the player, most difficult is to predict his prices.
The ‘market crash’ is happening since a few weeks ago.
Just sold my team when is the best time buying a new including aguero, dybala
You sold it too late. You should have sold them a few weeks ago. Now, if you want to buy them back cheaper, you will have to wait 2-3 weeks.
Guys, I need help. I have De Gea, Griezmann, Lacazette whom I consider to trade. What’s the best time to do it? Now, before ThursdaY?
You are too late. You should have sell them a few weeks ago.
You may try to sell them on Saturday but nothing is guaranteed.
Thanks for the quick reply, mate.
I bought alexis sanchez, douglas costa, smalling and cech few days ago. Is it too late to sell them because their prices are dropping. After black friday, will their prices increase and if so will it return to nearly as much as they were before the crash?
No, they won’t. Take a look here.
Hey! I’m planning to build a 200k team and a 150k team. Is it best to buy on the 24th of November and is Fut United going to happen this year?
Forget FUT United. This year we will have FUTMas which is much more important.
I suggest to buy it on Wednesday night.
Hey, nice article! I had a question; I picked up Aguero for 440 yesterday and i have 2 questions with the upcoming Black friday:
– When is the best time to sell aguero? His price is rising atm. but when will it drop again
– I want to build a new team, when do i start.
In short, when is the best time to sell/buy with upcoming black friday. Thanks allot!
His price is dropping and will not be back for that kind of values.
If you want to build a cheap team, wait for the first day of the TOTY. If you don’t want to wait so much time, buy it Wednesday night.
Really, wonderful topic.
And this called “FGP”, this fluctuation of price rank site is also very useful too
Didn’t know this site.
Do you know who are the owners?
I don’t know FGP’s owner, but I found FGP official Twitter.
Probably I think this website which made this year.. thanks
Thank you for your reply.
I’ve sold all of my players and have 350k… when is the best time to buy players in the 85/86+ range?
In this order, depending of how much time you can wait:
1) In the first day of TOTY;
2) In the first day of FUTMas;
i want to buy pogba but don’t want to wait ages, whens a good time to for a reasonable price?
December 11. If you don’t want to wait so long, you can try to buy him on November 24.
Why 24th? Thursday?
Quando começa a black friday ???
Black Friday é dia 25.
I have messi and Ronaldo when do you think is a good date to sell them and pick them up for cheaper
You should have done it before.
You can see Ronaldo’s prices last year here.
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