How the FIFA 17 Team of the Year affects the transfer market? How high are the TOTY prices? What’s the best time to buy Ronaldo TOTY? What happens to NIF cards prices of players featuring in the TOTY? When will be the best day to sell my cards? It would be great to know the answers to all of these and other questions, wouldn’t it? That’s why we’re publishing this guide which analyses the variations on the players’ prices along the FIFA 17 Team of the Year. Knowledge is power!
Quick Access
Introduction
Basic Principles
The Market
NIF cards of players featuring in the TOTY
TOTY Prices
Comprehending the FIFA 17 TOTY Prices
Guide’s introductory note
In the past three years we have been collecting information on the prices of hundreds of players’ cards, in different stages of the season, including during the TOTY. We’ll use them not only in order to predict what is going to happen in FIFA 17, but also to publish other more specific and detailed trading guides.
This series of trading guides we’ve been publishing obeys to a logical sequence. If you haven’t read one of the previous articles, we recommend you do it now. As we have said here before, prices on the FUT market vary according to several factors, like for example the type of card, the player, his real life performance or the release of promotional packs. That’s why it’s impossible to describe with 100% accuracy what is going to happen with the price of a determined card because every case is a different case. What we’re doing here is give you a general idea of the evolution in the average card’s price. It doesn’t mean all cards will behave the same way at some point. We’re talking tendencies only. So now that’s been warned…
Basic Principles
General notions on the way FIFA 17 TOTY affects the players’ prices
Predicting the price of a card isn’t an easy task. This year it’s even harder. The FUT market has never been so unpredictable as it is now. There are several factors responsible for that but there is a time in the year with a bigger weight in the way how the prices change: the Team of the Year. TOTY is the most important moment of the game, introducing the best FIFA 17 cards but also causing the largest price changes.
We analysed these variations very carefully throughout the year and were able to come up with some important conclusions.
Market Crash
Prices in general gradually decrease as the TOTY release approaches. On the first day you’ll witness the biggest price drop of the season, except for the NIF cards of players featuring in the TOTY.
IF Cards
The IF cards’ prices start to rise during the TOTY, as an effect of the anticipation to the January updates.
NIF cards of players featuring in the TOTY
Most certainly it’s a bad idea to buy these cards during the TOTY. Their prices rise even more when they’re replaced by the blue ones in packs.
TOTY Cards
The TOTY prices drop in peaks on the first hours. A new devaluation occurs on the week after the end of the TOTY.
Now that you have an idea of how the players’ prices vary due to the TOTY in FIFA 17, it’s time to go deeper.
The FIFA 17 TOTY and the Market
Variation of FIFA 17 players’ prices due to the TOTY
All FIFA 17 cards are affected by the Team of the Year in a way. It is responsible for price drops before it even starts. Part of the devaluation that’s registered before FUTMas is the effect of the TOTY coming right after. It’s expected for the cards’ prices to suffer a reduction of about 15% on the month before the long awaited 9th of January.
In order to simplify the analysis of the market’s behaviour, we’ll describe separately what happens to the NIF cards and what happens to the IF cards.
The NIF cards lose value progressively through the weeks before the TOTY. The biggest drop is registered both on the day it starts and the day before that, which by the way is a Sunday, a day of the week when prices are lower. Only on this day the market should drop more than 3%. And that is followed by an apparent stabilisation which lasts until the weekend arrives. At this stage prices tend to rise very slightly, then, just as the TOTY cards stop coming from packs, the market rises again. This price increase tendency lasts about two weeks, then the natural course of devaluation is resumed.
| NIF CARDS PRICES DURING THE FIFA 16 TOTY | |||||||||||||||||
| DAY | -1 | MON | TUE | WED | THU | FRI | SAT | SUN | MON | +1 | +2 | +15 | |||||
| % | ↓ 3% | ↓ 6% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 0% | ↑ 0% | ↓ 2% | ↑ 2% | ↑ 0% | ↑ 2% | ↑ 2% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 3% | |||||
Click in the image to maximize itThe behaviour of IF cards’ prices during the TOTY is slightly different. Although the lowest prices are also expected on January 9th, the truth is that the difference comparatively to the values registered immediately before the Black Friday is much smaller. After hitting a historical minimum on the first day of the Team of the Year, the price tendencies start being just one: increasing. During the whole week, day after day, the cards keep becoming more expensive, reaching a price increase of about 15% between the first and the last day. Just as the blue cards stop coming from packs, the IF cards’ price increase becomes even more evident. This behaviour is explained mainly by the anticipation of upgrades season which can make many IF cards gain value.
| IF CARDS PRICES DURING THE FIFA 16 TOTY | |||||||||||||||||
| DAY | -1 | MON | TUE | WED | THU | FRI | SAT | SUN | MON | +1 | |||||||
| % | ↓ 1% | ↓ 2% | ↑ 3% | ↑ 2% | ↑ 1% | ↑ 2% | ↑ 5% | ↑ 4% | ↑ 5% | ↑ 5% | |||||||
Click in the image to maximize itNIF cards of players featuring in the TOTY
Price variations of NIF players who received a TOTY card
One of the most recurrent doubts on players’ minds has to do with the behaviour of the prices of NIF players that are rewarded with a TOTY card. As you would imagine, this analysis has to be made differently for each position, not just because the players’ values are way too discrepant, but also because the days in which the cards are coming from packs or not are also different.
If you’re waiting for the release of the Team of the Year to buy the regular card of a centre back or goalkeeper who is very likely to feature in the TOTY, don’t do so in the first days of the TOTY week. The reason why you shouldn’t is because just as the NIF cards stop coming from packs, they suffer an increase of more than 10%, something very considerable since we’re talking about a period of just two days. On the third day, when it’s once again possible to find these cards in packs, a very accentuated price drop is registered, something around 30%. Their minimum is hit on saturday, the same day increases of around 20% over the prices we had before the TOTY release are registered. It’s very interesting to observe that the behaviours of these five cards on the market are very similar to each other.
Click in the image to maximize itAs for the midfielders who receive a TOTY card, their NIF cards’ prices are constantly slightly increasing from the day the TOTY is announced. This behaviour stays the same on wednesday and thursday, when you can’t find them in packs. Just as they go back to being available, there’s a slight drop, then follows an increase of about 15% in a single day (sunday), as a result of the anticipation of the end of the most important week of the season. On the next days prices continue to increase, although in a much more moderate rhythm, reaching a maximum approximately three weeks after the end of the TOTY, with an accumulated valorisation of almost 50%.
Click in the image to maximize itThe attackers’ price evolution is easier to describe. Basically, from the first and to the last day of the TOTY, their prices are always increasing. Between the day of the TOTY announcement and the next saturday, these NIF cards’ prices increase about 10%. This increase gets even more accentuated starting from sunday, and dragging itself until tuesday, when the maximum is reached with an accumulated valorisation of almost 30%. If you’re thinking of buying a Ronaldo or a Messi, maybe it’s best to do so in the first week of january, before the TOTY is released.
Click in the image to maximize itTOTY Prices
Variation of TOTY prices
Once again, it only makes sense to do an analysis of the TOTY prices if we divide the cards by position.
The first blue cards to be released are the goalkeeper’s and the defenders’. Just like what happens to almost any IF card, they appear on the market at very high prices and after a few hours they can cost much less. As for these first cards we’re analysing, the devaluation in the first 24 hours can reach up to 40%. From tuesday to wednesday, the day when the market is already saturated with these cards, their prices reach their minimum, a drop of 5 to 10%, followed by a slight recovery until the weekend arrives. If you’re willing to take risks, you may also wait for the week after the TOTY, when the estimated devaluation can reach 15%. Until the middle of July, the tendency is always a slow devaluation, while it can reach cumulatively 25% in six months, and so we’re able to verify that events almost don’t affect their prices. In the two months that precede the FIFA 18 demo release, prices slightly increase, and then go back to decreasing afterwards.
Click in the image to maximize itBuying the TOTY card of a midfielder just as it’s launched is always a terrible idea. Only in the first 48 hours they tend to lose about 20% of their value. On the weekend prices slightly increase, but if you wait until the next week you can save almost 20%, which is a lot of coins for a card like that. The devaluation along the next six months goes on but in an extremely slow rhythm. At the end of this period it’s expected for them to have lost at least 10% of their value. On FIFA 16, the Community Week affected the TOTY prices, making them lose 10% of value at the end of 5 days, and recovering that loss in the two next days.
Click in the image to maximize itThe most desired cards of the game have a friday 13th as release date but things will only go bad if you try to buy them in these four days in which they’re available in packs. Only in the first 24 hours it’s expected for them to lose up to 25% of value, while the most reputed the player is, the biggest the devaluation will be. Until the end of the TOTY, prices maintain themselves more or less stable, suffering a new devaluation on the next week when it can reach up to 20%. If you’re willing to take risks, this is the best time to buy a TOTY attacker since a new accentuated devaluation isn’t expected to happen. Only as the FIFA 18 demo is released prices might go back to decreasing in a visible way. Until then, they’ll normally follow a natural tendency of slow devaluation, although the prices of Ronaldo and Messi are almost impossible to predict.
Click in the images to maximize it
Great Analysis … I want to buy TOTY Suarez … I have tracked him for months and he once dropped to 2.7M but today seems stuck around 3M. His price went up in Feb when players were trying to qualify for FIFA17 $$ tournaments. Since the prices are so high I keep waiting for him to drop. Should I expect price drop in March/April.
The prices of these top cards are extremely unpredictable.
Hello again!
Thank you for your help last time!
You wrote that some IF cards is going to increase a lot before the WU. Some IF are already increasing a lot.
My question is if the IF market is reaching its peak now, just beacuse of the predictions and whats gonna happen with the market after the WU is released?
Specific for the cards thats get upgraded.
Lets say Alexis 89 again 🙂
If his IF Cards would be upgraded 1 point.
How much more would the New IF card increase compare to the market at the moment?
Thanks!
Hi!
Yes, I believe the market is reaching its peak. The price will probably keep growing a few more days but it isn’t a bad time to sell.
“whats gonna happen with the market after the WU is released?” We will publish a guide explain this.
It’s hard to predict but I believe the 89->90 card will assume a price similar to what his 90 rated card was a few days ago.
Thank you! I will keep my Alexis until WU.
What about the other IF that the community really think would get an
WU-card similiar or higher to thier current lowest IF.
Would these card suffer a BIIIG drop, if its shown that the upgrades wouldnt be high enough for the boost to thier current IF cards?
Like Eriksen, Lukaku, Kante.
These IF cards has increased a lot past week…
I have read the pre-report of EA’s WU. Neither Lukaku or Eriksen was there.
Hi.
It depends of the player but for some of them the drop will not be huge.
Where you read the “pre-report of EA’s WU” ?
I’m sorry. Poor choice of words.
Just the H2H upgrades. But it use to be pretty similar right?
Although.. I think that Lukaku can be +1, but they have not confirmed this or that, about the special cards, like scream?
Why is the market going down right now?
Is it beacuse of the upcoming WU?
Hi. OK.
1) Yes, it use to be pretty similar but there are more upgrades on FUT.
2) EA haven’t confirmed about the special cards.
3) The market was down because of the discounted coins packs but it will go up in the coming days.
Ok, so I packed Luis Suarez TOTY card yesterday. Now I am thinking whether to sell him ASAP or wait. When it is supposed to be the biggest return rate on such a card? (third most expensive in the game usually lol) – was omg’ing for half an hr lol 😀
Look to the last graph. “new accentuated devaluation isn’t expected to happen” so soon.
Hi Rodrigo! I wanted to tell you that I packed TIF Eriksen (OMG!) and I’m sure that for his performance in both last and current seasons he surely should get upgraded. He’s going for 130K in PS3 right now. This being said, I’m not sure when is exactly the best time to sell him, or whether if he’s on this week’s TOTW affects anything within your guide.
I’m not secure to advice you about the PS3 and XB360 market because I don’t follow them but if it was in a PS4 or XB1 I would tell you to sell him later.
Hi, I bought many gaitans before toty knowing the sbc for totw 16 will be coming out and it might be required i bought him for 9k now he is 7k what do i do now to make the most profit or try not to lose profit?
Follow his price everyday and sell him if you see that it will not go down.
Hi Rodrigo,
The year of release of TOTY has changed this year. When should I get a Ramos? I saw the prices are slightly decreasing, is that possible that it will reach a lower price than black friday period (Nov, 2016)?
Regards,
AP
Prices were lower than ever in the first day. I think they will not go down again for that prices.
As we published, you should have bough Ramos on Jan 9.
Hello Rodrigo ! Just wondering I wanted to sell my Ligue1 premier league hybrid but I’m not sure when to sell and when to buy … just to let you know Id like to know exactly how much Thiago silva will go for At his peak price as I have him currently in my team , thanks .
What is the estimated best time to buy players tomorrow?
Probably at night.
Excuse me, Rodrigo, but do you mean night 09.01.2017 or night 10.01.2017 (right after the announcement of TOTY)?
Thanks for the answer.
After TOTY (10/01)
There hasnt been any big crash.. Just a small change… Due to Sbc and Weekend league ?
Well, prices are now lower than ever. If you look to the table we published in this page, you will see that we were expecting a drop of 6% for NIF cards and 2% for IF cards. I don’t agree with you about being just a ‘small change’. Prices of NIF cards are 12% cheaper since Thursday.
Hey Rodrigo, I read your article and thought i was very informative! One question however, in your article you mentioned that the IF items are cheapest on January 9th, however do you think it is still a good idea to invest in them already if i am planning to sell them later when they get an upgrade e.g. Icardi
Hi,
Same topic here.
I have traded some IF cards last weeks with good profits.
Walcott +35k
Sanchez 88 +25k
Yesterday I picked up Hazard 88 for 550k. That is his lowest price in present price range.
1.
Maybe hard to answer, but could I have done more profit with Walcott and Sanchez if I kept them to end of January?
2.
Should I sell Hazard right now or should I keep him until end of January.
If I´m lucky I can already make a 100k profit for him, is his price increasing so much more end of January?
Thanks!
Hazard IF 89 not 88 of course..
OK. In that case, it depends of what you believe it will happen: he will be upgraded or not? does the community believe he will be upgraded? Most likely his price will go up until February.
Hi.
1) Yes, it is not easy to answer because it depends of many factors, including how they perform in real life, but I believe their prices will still go up.
2) Sorry but I’m confused. Hazard 88 is not his NIF card?
Regards
If you think someone will be upgraded, it’s a good idea to invest in their IF’s as soon as possible. Their prices will go up until February, The most unpredictable is the upgrade, the highest are your chances to make money with him.
Thank you.
Once again, great site!
Just two questions, or maybe one is more an observation.
Is it really so good to see TOTY and WU as a good way to make extra cash or is rather the best period to buy your dream-team as cheap as possible?
I remember last years crash. I bought a lot of Shaqiri IF. Once the market balanced again I made good profit, but the thing is that all other players also increased, of course, so my profit was almost useless.
If my goal is to buy –> sell –> re-buy high valued players/IF with profit.
Which cards/players would be best or is more like eating the cake and having it. Dead case…
Ex,
Buy Hazard IF 88 –> sell –> re-buy, with money left.
Not buy Hazard IF 88 –> sell –> buy NIF kante, walker, etc..
This is during a 2-4 weeks time, I dont want to save money to invest in ex, June.
Thanks
Omg- Sorry. Again… Hazard 89.
We should ask EA to change his IF1 card to 88. 🙂
I understand very will your question. It’s a kind of dilemma. There is no right choice because if you do the things right, you will win in both ways.
In my opinion, playing FUT is all about fun. For most of the players, selling and buying players all the time is not fun at all. I believe it’s now time to build our best teams and play, even knowing we could have better teams if we wait a few more weeks/months.
Haha, yes we should do that!
I agree 100%. I’m still playing with my A-team beacuse I like playing. Some luck from trading, packs and weekend league have made my bank.
I think Alexis is going to be upgraded to 88 or 89.
IF right now.
88: 450-480k
89: 690-730k
90: 1,1-1,7m
Is it fair to predict that the new ones will have the same value as the old ones with the same rating?
Like present IF Alexis 88 with 2 points upgrade it will be 90.
Would the new card rated 90, be valued 1,1-1,7 millions?
You can use these prices as a reference but they will be different. They always are.
Hey Rodrigo, great article as always.
I was wondering if you knew what effect the squad building challenges would have on the prices during toty this year.
If I’m correct, if ea release an sbc on the first day of toty, prices of some players will increase. What are your thoughts on this?
SBC and Weekend League have both a great impact in the market. However, TOTY is the most important moment of the season. I believe that even with the release of a new SBC, the market will crash anyway. Remember that prices will drop even before the TOTY release date.
Thanks for ur answer but I have one more question. Will the transfered cards e.g. Draxler’s psg card drop the same way that the nif drop during toty?
Yes. During TOTY, new card of Draxler will be his only card in packs.
You recommend to sell asap and buy on the 9th. Are you talking about all cards or just special cards? Cause what kind of team should I play with until with weekend league coming up? And when do I get my rewards from last WL
Yes, my suggestion is to sell all the player now and buy them back on Jan 8 or Jan 9. Obviously you will need a squad to play the WL. That is a decision you will have to take.
Weekly rewards are delivered every Wednesday night.
Awesome article Rodrigo!
I have a question: i have a team worth around 500k.
If i understand your article correctly, i should sell it asap and rebuy it when the TOTY is announced?
Thank you Chris.
Yes, that’s it. The only exception is if you have players who will get a TOTY card.
I have sold all of my players except for Buffon, Godin & Kante who will be in TOTY hopefully when should I sell the above and when should I buy my new squad of players thanks in advance.
To be honest, I believe that none of these three players will be on the TOTY and for that reason you should sell them as soon as possible (just a suggestion).
January 9 is a good day to go shopping.
Thanks again, I have around 300k to spend please can you advise of a good BPL, LA LIGA & BUNDESLIGA @ 100K side to buy again thanks for your advice
USe the medium budget suggestions you can find here.
Hi! I have now half a team worth of 90k including if fellaini and nif Lukaku. I have also 65k coins. So my question is: When should I buy new players and maybe sell my current ones? Is new year good time to buy players and then sell them before toty? And what I should do with IF Fellaini or movember hendersson who I want to buy to my team. And other question, If I would wanto to build a team based on championship players( Informs and mainly silver NIF players), what is the best time to do that and how will toty affect their prices?
Thanks for your good arcticles and help!
Hi.
1) Now is a good time to sell. Buy new ones on January 9.
2) New Year is an unstable time.
3) Do you want to sell IF Fellaini? If you believe he will be upgraded, hold him until the end of January. Otherwise, sel him as soon as possible.
4) About Henderson is getting more and more expensive. If you don’t want to buy him now, wait until January 9.
5) Prices of IF cards during the TOTY is explained in this page.
Happy new year!
Once Tory is over will the market crash prices stay the same
It depends of the cards. Look to the graphs, please.
What day should I sell my team?
Dec 26 should not be a bad day…
Hey. I just packed a Ibrahimovic and wondering if i should keep or sell. if sell when should i do it. not sure because futmas already started
You should sell him on Xmas. If you want him back, buy him in the end of the first week of January.
Great article Rodrigo! When is the best time to scoop up NIF players who will likely be on the TOTY squad such as Neymar and Bale? During the first day of the FUTMAS event or after TOTY has occurred? Thanks and keep up the great work!
As we published in this guide, it will be a bad idea to buy them during TOTY.
I suggest to take a look to their prices this Sunday.
The prices didnt drop during BF/CM do you realy think they will during this period?
They weren’t supposed to drop during BF and CM as you can see here.
They will drop when FUTmas comes out and then before the TOTY.